The USD/RUB currency pair is now traded at 65.027. The ruble fell slightly due to lower oil prices and demand for risky assets. What to expect in October?
For the first time since mid-September, the ruble's rate to the dollar exceeded ₽65. This was caused by a drop in oil prices due to the rapid recovery of production in Saudi Arabia after fires at factories. At present, Brent oil is traded at $61. Nevertheless, the ruble shows out-performance to other currencies of developing countries due to the budget surplus and high interest rates.
Analysts believe that the Russian currency, as well as the currencies of other commodity exporters, will win if trade agreements between the United States and China are reached. Therefore, with a positive outcome in mid-October, we can really expect the ruble rate growth. Decrease in the level of inflation can also add to its strengthening.
Meanwhile, the Russian currency was left without support of the tax period. The strengthening and lowering factors make out the balance, so in the short term the exchange rate will not go beyond the range of ₽64–65.5 per $1. It is also expected that the Ministry of Finance will increase the purchase of foreign currency by 23% compared to the previous month, which will limit the ruble growth.
The forecasts of Promsvyazbank analysts for October are ₽64-65 per $1, experts of KIT Finance adhere to the same opinion. Nordea Bank expects a possible ruble depreciation to 65.1, while the analysts interviewed by Refinitiv expect ₽64.73 per $1 by the end of October.